Russia in the oil and gas trap This product is now available at
http://dejarus.wordpress.com According to many experts, the Russian economy last year passed a turning point. Is with the oil and gas development in the related power is provided there are no further oil price rises by another 100%, reduce from this winter. This would be times in which Russia could simply turn off the tap over.
"why", you might reply. "The oil price has exceeded until last week, the $ 100 mark, and the gas price is pegged to that".
The problem becomes evident when one considers how the strong exports of oil, gas and other raw materials for other economic sectors, particularly affecting the manufacturing sector. Due to the high commodity exports increases the ruble. This makes Russian goods to the market more expensive and vice versa imported cheaper products from abroad. A similar problem through just German companies related to the strong euro.
In itself, the high revenues from the consumption of raw materials is no problem for a country's economy. The problem arises in that these proceeds are not used for the promotion of domestic production and processing sites. The money coming from abroad is in effect used up for consumption. The goods come from, but just because of the faltering production, to a very large part from abroad.
These relationships are confirmed by the figures on Russia's foreign trade balance. As the figures of
Rosstat (see chart), Russia's exports grew by the year 2006, together with the oil price. This shows that play in the Russian oil and gas exports, the main role.
Imports have also grown and that a similar relative strength as the exports. Be imported but for the most part finished products. The growth of imports shows So, that comes with time an increasing proportion of products in Russia from abroad. This confirms the assertion that there is insufficient investment in the manufacturing sector in Russia.
In this discussion, I've left two factors in mind, which have a further negative impact on the manufacturing sector. The first is the everyday corruption
.
The second factor is the policy of monopolization. This means that it is lately, the most effective way for companies in Russia had the monopoly. There, everything would proceed under state control and the people were not so deceived. History has shown many times before, that monopolies are sources of corruption, inefficiency and mismanagement always that you can leave these "official" explanation safely aside. Why do you try really set up monopolies?
The answer is obvious. A monopoly is easy to control. It is much easier to have a monopoly on diamonds, such as Alrosa, the company by Alexei Kudrin, finance minister to date. (By the way A long list of people in the state apparatus with its monopolies find
here on page 14). Thus, all persons in high offices to control equal amounts of money. And coincidentally they are all good friends and former confidant of Putin.
And what a fortune since coming together, can look even Gates pale (he had to toil for his billions but slightly longer). Putin has, after several matching reports (here are some
taz ,
world ) can amass a fortune of over U.S. $ 40 billion in less than 8 years, upper limit could be considerably higher. I believe there is every reason for these reports seriously. The very existence of the company Gunvor, the largest Russian oil transportation company based in Switzerland, a turnover of over 30 billion but no website has been confirmed by many sources.
What does this development for the Russian economy. The mineral producing sectors, the so called primary sector of economy, grow the raw material prices. The secondary sector, manufacturing remains the wayside. Raw materials but are not always there. And prices for raw materials are not always rise to the same extent as they did in the recent past. This is the primary sector or no long-term reliable pillar of a modern economy. The secondary sector, however, is a substantial factor that is independent of the raw materials.
last year were now clear what the consequences of Russia's economy and even in will have larger dimensions. According to the
data on the first 10 months of 2007 (page 64) compared to the same period of 2006 while exports grew by 12.7% to $ 280.4 billion has grown, while the imports are still much faster by 36.3 % to EUR 175.5 billion dollars has grown. This has decreased the foreign trade balance in spite of rising oil prices and that of 12.7%. The absolute numbers should be compared with GDP Russia, it is about $ 1000 billion (2006).
if this trend continues so that the external trade balance shrink fairly quickly. Not because the export is smaller, but due to rising imports. The reasons are the rising world market prices. This increase due to the high demand from emerging economies such as China, India, etc. Seen it this year to the sharp rise in food prices in the world.
The large foreign trade balance is precisely the factor of the current political system of Russia's "stability" gives. Since the export from the money available to the end to buy the goods produced is available. As soon as the foreign trade balance was negative or only small, it would have to come to greater dissatisfaction among the population. And the Kremlin would have to ask yourself where you put the less abundant existing funds. Thus, Russia is
make in the near Zukuunft less supplies in gas or oil can. An example: In December, observe how Putin flies to Minsk in order after he has not even received by President Lukashenko of Persons at the airport to grant Belarus a credit
$ 1.5 billion . This was perceived in Russia as a clear sign of weakness.
Against this background of general economic development of Russia may clear why Putin is not necessarily seeking a third term.
how should behave as Germany probably the best? Then I have no ready answer, you might.
photo of "Echo Moskvy "
